In more detail
Retirement Planning at Sterling & Law
Why drawing is a different problem from saving
In accumulation, falling markets help: the same monthly contribution buys more units, and time repairs the damage. In decumulation that reverses. Funding withdrawals from a falling market means selling more units to raise the same income, and those units are not there to participate in the recovery.
This is sequence risk, and it is the most underrated danger in retirement planning. Two people can retire with the same pot, experience the same average return over twenty years, and end in completely different positions — because one of them had the bad years early.
What a sustainable withdrawal rate really depends on
Rules of thumb circulate about safe withdrawal rates. They are a starting point and a poor stopping point, because they average over histories and ignore the specific person: how much of the spending is essential, whether there is other income, whether withdrawals could be reduced in a bad year without real hardship.
Flexibility is worth more than precision. A plan that can cut discretionary withdrawals temporarily survives sequences that a fixed withdrawal does not. So the number is less important than the answer to a different question: what is the plan when markets fall by a third in year two?
Annuity, drawdown, or both
Drawdown keeps the money invested, keeps flexibility and keeps whatever is left for a family. It also keeps the risk. An annuity converts a pot into a guaranteed income for life, removing both the risk and the flexibility, and removing the fund from the estate in most forms.
Presented as a binary it is a poor decision. In practice the useful question is how much guaranteed income is needed to cover the spending that cannot be reduced — the housing, the heating, the food — with the remainder left invested and flexible. Covering essentials with something guaranteed means a market fall affects holidays rather than necessities, which changes how it feels as well as how it works.
The order you draw matters
Most people reach retirement with money in more than one place: pensions, ISAs, general investments, cash. They are taxed differently, treated differently on death, and the order in which they are drawn can change the total tax paid over retirement considerably.
There is no single correct order. It depends on the sizes involved, other income, the inheritance tax position and how long the money has to last. It is worth planning deliberately rather than drawing from whatever is most convenient, which is the default and is rarely optimal.